You might want to make sure you stock up on emergency supplies.
The San Andreas fault is “locked, loaded and ready to roll,” a leading earthquake scientist said Wednesday at the National Earthquake Conference in Long Beach.
Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center believes that the San Andreas fault is due for a large quake as there has not been a big earthquake to strike the fault since 1857, when a magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck, reports the LA Times.
“The springs on the San Andreas system have been wound very, very tight. And the southern San Andreas fault, in particular, looks like it’s locked, loaded and ready to go,” Jordan said in the opening keynote talk.
And you are going to feel this one (via LA Times, emphasis by me):
Such an earthquake could cause shaking for nearly two minutes, with the strongest shaking in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley, but it also could send pockets of strong shaking into areas where sediments trap shaking waves, such as the San Gabriel Valley and East Los Angeles.
The Times beaks down the issue:
Other sections of the San Andreas fault also are far overdue for a big quake. Further southeast of the Cajon Pass, such as in San Bernardino County, the fault has not moved substantially since an earthquake in 1812, and further southeast toward the Salton Sea, it has been relatively quiet since about 1680 to 1690.
Here’s the problem: Scientists have observed that based on the movement of tectonic plates, with the Pacific plate moving northwest of the North American plate, earthquakes should be relieving about 16 feet of accumulated plate movement every 100 years. Yet the San Andreas has not relieved stress that has been building up for more than a century.
Jordan told the conference that Southern California needs to be prepared for a big quake. A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report warned that a 7.8 earthquake would cause 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and some big time issues – like the sewer system being out of service for six months.
